In forex , it is often said to buy the rumor and sell the fact. This simple logic works very well with short term options. The way to trade short term contracts is to first look for a major news release. This could the NFP that is very volatile and affects most of the majors. It could also be central bank interest rate decisions or even CPI data. The next step is to look for the sentiment.

Usually media starts to report about the estimates on such events 24 — 48 hours ahead of the news. If the general sentiment is bullish, then 5 minutes ahead of the news release, make sure to purchase a CALL option. Choosing the expiry time is of importance here as a small miscalculation can lead to a loss. Typically, choose contracts that expire close to the news release time.

For example, if a CPI news release is due to be out at 10GMT and the market is expecting a bullish reading, then purchase a CALL option 3 — 4 minutes before the news release.

Choose either a 60 second expiry or a 2 minutes expiring contracts. Price usually tends to rally before the news and then drop back after the news is released. To compare, a forex trader usually employs such a strategy known as scalping to make some high probability profits before, during and after the news release.

see Economic calendar with news here. AUDUSD — Unemployment Release : The chart below shows the 1 minute chart of AUDUSD before the Australia Unemployment data was released. Notice how price spiked just around the time the report was released. A CALL option around 0. But notice the importance of timing here. If the option was a 60 second expiry , it would have resulted in a loss.

NZDUSD Unemployment Release : The next example below shows the Kiwi unemployment data. Keeping in line with the buy the rumor sell the fact strategy, notice how price spiked ahead of the news release. The unemployment rate had actually increased from 5. However, despite the actual release, price rallied before the news was released. In this chart, we see that a 2 minute expiry just before the news release would have resulted in a winning trade.

Again, in this chart we would like to stress the importance of timing the trade and choosing the right expiry time. A minute ahead or later would have resulted in a losing trade due to the fast changing price. After making the spike, price moved within a tight range without any direction and it would have caught many traders who were late to the party… or some greedy traders opening new contracts resulting in a losing trade.

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